Don’t Be Fooled by Trump’s Rhetoric on Trade | Opinion

Politicians often speak in coded language, using seemingly innocuous terms that hold important, alternative meanings for segments of the electorate. Former President Donald Trump’s racist dog whistles, for instance, have been well documented. But one coded word has received less attention—tariffs.
On their face, tariffs don’t appear particularly subversive. Countries including the United States have used them for centuries to raise revenue, protect emergent industries, combat unfair foreign subsidies, and compel others to act differently. The legal authorities used to levy tariffs are well understood and have existed for decades.
Trump, however, understands that it is often difficult to distinguish tough talk on tariffs from the issue of who is better at creating jobs or standing up to China. During his first presidential term, his trade wars accomplished next to nothing. But they were popular, because voters felt he was standing up for their interests. To the Trump campaign, then, if his first-term tariffs were politically advantageous, then more must be better this time around—even if it means proposing entirely unworkable ideas.
This explains why the former president has made tariffs such a foundational piece of his effort to win back the White House. In the last few months, the Trump campaign has detailed three separate tariff proposals, each more outrageous than the last.
In December 2023, his campaign announced plans to levy a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on all imports. In February, Trump himself called for a 60 percent tariff on all goods coming from China. And in June, the former president told a closed-door meeting of his disciples (Republican members of Congress) that the United States should replace the income tax with tariffs—a mathematically impossible proposal and one of most inflationary ideas ever proposed by a major presidential candidate.
The economic impact of Trump’s planned tariffs would hit American workers hard. His 10 percent across-the-board tariff, which would tax imports from adversaries and allies alike, would amount to an $1,500 tax increase for the average family, forcing them to pay more for clothing, medicines, and food. If both his first and second proposal were implemented, that figure would increase to $2,500. And still, this is nothing compared to the projected impact of replacing all income taxes with tariffs, which would push millions of Americans into poverty while increasing the annual income of the very richest by 20 percent.
Note that recently, Trump floated a 20 percent across-the-board tariff that the Center for American Progress has estimated could cost the average American family $3,900 annually. And there is no indication that Trump is done yet with his increasingly outlandish tariff ideas. Clearly it is a subject he feels confident going back to again and again.
Focusing only on the economic impact of Trump’s tariff plans, however, distracts from his abysmal record on job creation and allows him to benefit from the feeling, however unjustified, that he’s somehow a tougher defender of American jobs.
When Trump was president, his tariff-and-tax-cut approach to economic policy failed. His knee-jerk approach to trade policy didn’t lower the trade deficit, despite his continued belief that the trade deficit was somehow a proxy for American strength (which it is not). Inflation-adjusted manufacturing construction did not grow and even fell during his last year in office. Manufacturing output began falling as early as 2018, well before its crash during the pandemic. Manufacturing employment was in decline before the pandemic in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—critical hubs to our country’s industrial base. In total, the Trump administration lost 178,000 manufacturing jobs.
Trump is like an irritable chef that promised a gourmet meal only to disappoint badly because he cooked with only two ingredients—tariffs and corporate tax cuts—and neither in any considered proportion. He recently told a group of CEOs that he planned to cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent, because it was a “round number.” Now he claims that if he just used more of the same two ingredients, the result would somehow be different. The fact is a better outcome takes a more thoughtful recipe and leader with the expertise to prudently deploy a range of ingredients.
The Biden-Harris administration has demonstrated that it knows how to use the full suite of tools to boost economic success—including smart, targeted tariffs, trade negotiations with key partners and allies, national investment, tax credits, research and development, procurement, and regulation. The results speak for themselves.
The Biden-Harris administration’s comprehensive strategy has generated nearly $900 billion in private sector investment in American manufacturing, and a surge in manufacturing employment that now stands above pre-pandemic levels. In total, over 800,000 new manufacturing jobs have been created since President Joe Biden took office, while inflation-adjusted wages and rates of unionization have also increased. The American industrial base is growing more competitive by the day, as investments in semiconductors, clean energy, electric vehicles and medical technologies start to come online.
In politics, it’s rare for the contrast between two records to be so obvious. Trump’s big talk on tariffs only works if voters hear “tariffs” and think of jobs and standing up to China. We should know better. Only one team has a proven record of creating jobs and strengthening American competitiveness—and it’s the Biden-Harris administration.
Ryan Mulholland is a senior fellow for international economic policy at the Center for American Progress.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.